2022 Blockchain Bold Predictions
DEFI:
DeFi TVL will surpass $1t
On-chain reputation will replace the ridiculous ‘whitelisting’ process for new protocols
Argent and Dharma will both launch a token, but announce it in advance, to promote mainstream mobile DeFi adoption
UST will remain the #1 decentralized stablecoin and grow faster than USDT/USDC
Crosschain bridge infrastructure will be an enormous growth sector and be built into DEXs, yield aggregators, money markets, and other important DApps
There will be a 9 figure DeFi exploit, but the total number of exploits will be less than half of 2021
The majority of ‘metaverse’ returns will resemble DeFi from 2021
Staked ETH derivatives will grow 10X from 2021 (rETH, stETH, etc) and be the second largest form of DeFi collateral behind ETH
Undercollateralized lending via KYC and credit delegation will be a growing narrative. Aave ARC and Maple Finance are clear leaders, with Compound Treasury close behind.
The biggest $ denominated airdrop will come from the ZKSync ecosystem. Zapper, Zerion, and DeBank will all have airdrops
NFTFi will be a major narrative. NFTs for early adopters that can be exchanged for tokens, NFTs for reputation/access gating (e.g. Yearn Blue Pill), yield bearing NFTs
A major CEX will partner with Rocket Pool for ETH staking in an attempt to appear pro-decentralization. The CEX will run nodes as well as onboard customers’ to rETH.
LAYER 1:
Cosmos app chains will produce the largest number of new wallets, highest returns, and TVL increase.
The Ethereum Merge will be delayed by at least 2 months, but be successful, just like every other previous hard forks
Ethereum fees will stay high, but a DApp will launch that subsidizes gas fees profitably through arbitrage or liquid markets. Weiward was a good first attempt, but others will emerge
Bitcoin dominance will continue to fall as smart contract layers accrue more value
The multichain world is here to stay and the scalability trilemma will continue to be a topic of discussion.
Arbitrum and Optimism will launch a token and developer/ecosystem incentives and outperform the top 2021 alternative L1’s (Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Fantom)
Jack Dorsey will remain a BTC maximalist and push the DeFi on Bitcoin/Lightning network forward by incorporating elements into Block.
DeFi on Bitcoin will not get broad adoption, and TVL growth will be less than the top SC layers (ETH, BNB, SOL, LUNA, AVAX, ADA, DOT, MATIC, ALGO, NEAR)
A major Layer 1 blockchain (>$5b market cap) will be 51% attacked due to a lack of adequate decentralization
WEB3 CULTURE:
Everyone will need an intern due to the ever expanding multichain universe
The trend of employees leaving corporate jobs for Web3 and crypto native jobs (builders, DAOs, investors) is not a fad, and will continue
A major cryptocurrency figurehead will win the Nobel Prize
One of the big 5 tech companies (FAANG) will accept stablecoins as payment, directly
Discord will move ahead with Metamask integration and become the go-to Web3 workspace
Twitter will heavily lean into Web3 after Jack Dorsey’s departure
MACRO:
At least 5 more countries will adopt BTC as legal tender, likely in Latin America and Africa
A major bank will accept cryptocurrency as collateral for mortgages
Michael Saylor and Nayib Bukele will buy more BTC
$COIN will outperform $JPM
Multiple US House and Senate candidates during the 2022 mid-term elections will accept cryptocurrency for campaign donations, and one will issue an NFT to contributors
The proliferation of on-chain analytics will dampen volatility as buyers and sellers (shorts/longs) try to front run each other in the markets. Cryptocurrency growth will primarily depend on macroeconomic policy and behave as a high beta asset to the S&P500. Should high inflation, rate hikes, and accelerated tapering (hawkish fed policy) occur, cryptocurrency will go into a bear market. OTOH, dovish Fed is bullilsh for crypto and inflows/returns will outperform TradFi. The latter situation and continued bull market will play out in 2022.
A country will experiment with issuing Universal Basic Income (UBI) on the blockchain