2022 Blockchain Bold Predictions

DEFI:

• DeFi TVL will surpass $1t

• On-chain reputation will replace the ridiculous ‘whitelisting’ process for new protocols

• Argent and Dharma will both launch a token, but announce it in advance, to promote mainstream mobile DeFi adoption

• UST will remain the #1 decentralized stablecoin and grow faster than USDT/USDC

• Crosschain bridge infrastructure will be an enormous growth sector and be built into DEXs, yield aggregators, money markets, and other important DApps

• There will be a 9 figure DeFi exploit, but the total number of exploits will be less than half of 2021

• The majority of ‘metaverse’ returns will resemble DeFi from 2021

• Staked ETH derivatives will grow 10X from 2021 (rETH, stETH, etc) and be the second largest form of DeFi collateral behind ETH

• Undercollateralized lending via KYC and credit delegation will be a growing narrative. Aave ARC and Maple Finance are clear leaders, with Compound Treasury close behind.

• The biggest $ denominated airdrop will come from the ZKSync ecosystem. Zapper, Zerion, and DeBank will all have airdrops

• NFTFi will be a major narrative. NFTs for early adopters that can be exchanged for tokens, NFTs for reputation/access gating (e.g. Yearn Blue Pill), yield bearing NFTs

• A major CEX will partner with Rocket Pool for ETH staking in an attempt to appear pro-decentralization. The CEX will run nodes as well as onboard customers’ to rETH.

LAYER 1:

• Cosmos app chains will produce the largest number of new wallets, highest returns, and TVL increase. 

• The Ethereum Merge will be delayed by at least 2 months, but be successful, just like every other previous hard forks

• Ethereum fees will stay high, but a DApp will launch that subsidizes gas fees profitably through arbitrage or liquid markets. Weiward was a good first attempt, but others will emerge

• Bitcoin dominance will continue to fall as smart contract layers accrue more value

• The multichain world is here to stay and the scalability trilemma will continue to be a topic of discussion. 

• Arbitrum and Optimism will launch a token and developer/ecosystem incentives and outperform the top 2021 alternative L1’s (Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Fantom)

• Jack Dorsey will remain a BTC maximalist and push the DeFi on Bitcoin/Lightning network forward by incorporating elements into Block.

• DeFi on Bitcoin will not get broad adoption, and TVL growth will be less than the top SC layers (ETH, BNB, SOL, LUNA, AVAX, ADA, DOT, MATIC, ALGO, NEAR)

• A major Layer 1 blockchain (>$5b market cap) will be 51% attacked due to a lack of adequate decentralization

WEB3 CULTURE:

• Everyone will need an intern due to the ever expanding multichain universe

• The trend of employees leaving corporate jobs for Web3 and crypto native jobs (builders, DAOs, investors) is not a fad, and will continue

• A major cryptocurrency figurehead will win the Nobel Prize

• One of the big 5 tech companies (FAANG) will accept stablecoins as payment, directly

• Discord will move ahead with Metamask integration and become the go-to Web3 workspace

• Twitter will heavily lean into Web3 after Jack Dorsey’s departure

MACRO:

• At least 5 more countries will adopt BTC as legal tender, likely in Latin America and Africa

• A major bank will accept cryptocurrency as collateral for mortgages

• Michael Saylor and Nayib Bukele will buy more BTC

• $COIN will outperform $JPM

• Multiple US House and Senate candidates during the 2022 mid-term elections will accept cryptocurrency for campaign donations, and one will issue an NFT to contributors

• The proliferation of on-chain analytics will dampen volatility as buyers and sellers (shorts/longs) try to front run each other in the markets. Cryptocurrency growth will primarily depend on macroeconomic policy and behave as a high beta asset to the S&P500. Should high inflation, rate hikes, and accelerated tapering (hawkish fed policy) occur, cryptocurrency will go into a bear market. OTOH, dovish Fed is bullilsh for crypto and inflows/returns will outperform TradFi. The latter situation and continued bull market will play out in 2022.

• A country will experiment with issuing Universal Basic Income (UBI) on the blockchain